Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Forex Day Trading - Why Day Traders NEVER Win Long Term

By Kelly Price

If you are new to Forex trading you may consider day trading but beware of the fact that day traders ALWAYS lose for the following reason:

All short-term price volatility is random

There are countless millions of traders each day that trade trillions of dollars worth of currency and to say that you can measure what they will do in a few hours or a day is the biggest myth of currency trading.

THE PROOF

You may say that you have seen forex trading systems that claim profits and what they do is claim and NEVER produce a real track record.

You normally get the following:

1. Outrageous Claims

Advertising copy pure and simple, with no substantiation - designed to appeal to the greed and naivety of the buyer.

2. A Hypothetical Track Record

Let me explain what this is, for those of you who don’t know:

It’s a hypothetical track record done in hindsight KNOWING the closing prices! How hard is that?

Anyone can do it and there not worth the paper they’re written on. The fact so many traders don’t question them or don’t ask for a real track record, means they lose and wonder why.

Anyone can make money knowing the closing prices but in Forex Trading you don’t get that luxury – its what makes forex trading so hard.

The reason you don't get a real time day trading track record is simple - day trading DOESN’T work.

If it did you would see a day trader with a real track record but of course if you try and find one you’re in for a long search.

Day Traders don’t make money – PERIOD.

If you want to make money with forex technical analysis you need to trade in time frames where the data can help you get the odds on your side and this means normally data of a few weeks minimum, not a few hours.

Think about it - if you have random volatility that can and do take prices anywhere in a day, its impossible to apply any technical tools to it. The tools maybe good but the data is unreliable and that’s why day traders lose.

The proof is a real time track record and you wont get one in day trading – try asking one of the vendors who try and sell day trading systems for one and get ready for a long search.

Day trading does not work and never has and it's one of the biggest myths of trading that forex traders fall for - dont fall into the trap or you will lose to.

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FOREX Day Trading - Brokers Love Day Traders For One Reason

By Kelly Price

FOREX Day traders are loved by brokers these are the traders they simply want more than any other type of trader.

FOREX day traders are wary of brokers, because they think they pick their stops off and that’s why they love them – but the real reason is:

Day traders are guaranteed to lose their money without any help from a broker. I used to work in the back office of a broker and we factored them in as losing straight away and a big fat profit for us.

So here are the reasons we loved them and other brokers do to:

1. Day trading by its very nature doesn’t work

Trying to trade in short time spans of a few hours or a day and to try and measure where prices are going is ridiculous.

All short term volatility is random and prices can and do, go anywhere.

We traded several thousand day traders and not one made money, they all lost.

The logic FOREX day trading is based upon is totally flawed.

Try this simple test:

Ask any vendor selling a system on the net and ask for a real time track record and see if you get one – You won’t.

Many of them are simply writers or failed brokers.

They make up track records sell them and then do a deal with a broker for a kick back commission and believe me the commission is good – we paid out tens of thousands every month!

2 Great commission

Day trading is the best commission to equity you can get and for a broker that’s great.

Lots of trades, eroding account equity to zero and paying commission every day.

Much better than a trader coming in and blowing his equity in a couple of trades.

Market makers are equally happy.

As they want the traders deposit lost and on their book.

They are trading against the client and don’t need to worry it will soon be in the bank. Furthermore, as day traders never make any big profits (running profits is totally alien to them)

The risk of carrying a day trader on your own book as a broker is low.

DO BROKERS HUNT STOPS?

The answer is no.

Day traders believe this, but the real reason is they set their stops to close.

Support and resistance are meaningless in day sessions and that’s why stops get hit all the time.

Its not the brokers fault, it’s the day traders for being stupid and placing his stops in meaningless time frames where volatility is random.

There you have it.

The reason brokers love day traders is their great money earners for the house and guaranteed to lose as well, which is perfect for market makers.

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Forex Day Trading – Trading Support and Resistance For Profits

By Sacha Tarkovsky

To win at day trading it is important to predict where prices are likely to go within the day and this means looking at support and resistance.

Let’s take a closer look at the importance of support and resistance in forex day trading.

This is the challenge:

The challenge for any day trader is to accurately predict the range when faced by:

Trillions of dollars traded each day, by millions of participants which include:

Central banks, large and small managed funds, hedgers and individual speculators.

They all have different investment objectives.

Some want to make money and some simply want to hedge their risk.

How many of these pay attention to daily movements and ranges within the day?

Only a very small minority.

With such a vast and diverse trading base, support and resistance calculated within the day is bound to be a fruitless exercise.

Why?

It’s a fact you cannot accurately predict volatility within such a small time frame and the vast majority of participants are not bothered about day trading levels.

This means you are using meaningless data that has no validity.

Day traders lose all the time and never make money longer term.

Ever seen a day trader with a real time track record over the long term?

Maybe there is one, but I have never seen it.

There are some day traders who say you need to be patient and wait for the right opportunity, but if the data is based upon an illogical way of trading it doesn’t matter how long you wait.

Day trading is still the equivalent to flipping a coin.

The problem with day trading is volatility takes them out all the time.

Support and resistance levels don’t hold as they should and day traders are stopped out with a huge number of losses.

These losses are small and that’s a good thing in trading, but because the stops are so close they have little chance of making money.

Can profits to so can they cover the losses?

Of course we all know that if you keep losses small and run profits we can become a winner over time.

Well running profits is alien to day traders and they don’t get many!

They simply want to get a profit (any size) scalp the market and get out.

So you have a scenario where they cant and don’t win.

Using support and resistance in daily timescales to make money is a contradiction in terms when it comes to day trading.

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Forex Day Trading Training Tips For Forex Traders Wanting To Win More

By Karin I Manning

There are many Forex day trading training tips that will help Forex day traders of any level secure more winning trades and more Forex profits. This article will discuss some Forex day trading training tips that the professional Forex traders use to generate more Forex winning trades than losses. Keep reading to get access to a $100,000.00 simulated trading account.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 1: Don't second guess your indicators. You must believe in them and what they are telling you at all times. Be brave enough to listen to them and analyze the clues that they are giving you.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 2: Don't listen to anyone else about Forex day trading unless they are proven to be successful Forex day traders. The bottom line is it's your money, not anyone else's. You have no obligation to listen to anyone else.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 3: Stay positive at all times and focus on your Forex day trading success whenever you trade. Understand right now that you will make mistakes, I guarantee it. Everyone has and everyone will and anyone who tells you they've never made a mistake is lying! The important thing is always to accept you've made a mistake, analyze it and immediately move on from it and learn from it.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 4: Remember at all times that generally speaking, currencies always trade well. Always look for clues, for VERY convincing evidence that price has made up its mind and follow its lead.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 5: As the saying goes, practice makes perfect and nowhere is that more obvious than on the Forex trading platform. Practice, practice, practice, and continue your Forex trading education constantly forever. You can never know too much.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 6: Never ever take trades in between pivot points. That area is dead man's land and MUST be avoided at all costs. There's no need to ever go there. There are enough clues and signals to avoid the area indefinitely.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 7: Don't be scared away from the Forex market because you think it's too risky. The Forex market is the most financial liquid market in the world - how does $1.5 TRILLION every day in the US sound?

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 8: Always keep a look out for combinations of patterns as well as obvious price patterns.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 9: You must always follow the price's lead as it always determines which set of pivot points it will work with.

Forex Day Trading Training Tip 10: You don't have to be greedy. If you want to exit with some profits then do so.

I have discussed some essentials and fundamentals of Forex day trading training. The fact is that only 10 percent of Forex traders are generally consistently successful. To learn how to start your Forex trading career in the select 10 percent and remain there I strongly suggest you visit the website below.

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Forex Day Trading - The Best Way To Lose Your Money In Forex

By Kelly Price

As an experienced trader I find all the day trading courses and their ridiculous claims amusing – none of them make money, but many forex traders take them seriously, trade them and lose. So why can’t you win at day trading? The answer is:

Volatility is Random In Short Time Periods

Its random therefore daily support and resistance levels and any other technical tools you use are useless.

This should be pretty obvious to anyone you have countless millions of people trading trillions of dollars each day and to say you can measure this mass of opinions in under a day is laughable.

You can’t the data is simply not valid in short time frames.

The Proof

You may still be convinced by the e-book or system on the net you have seen that promises you “90% success”, “regular profits each month” or trading tops and bottoms with scientific accuracy. Well if you believe them get the proof ask for it:

“Can I please have a real time track record over a 3 year period of your gains?”

You won’t get one and if you do let me know!

Of course you will get a hypothetical track record. In case you haven’t guessed what that is – it’s a track record designed in hindsight knowing the closing prices!

The problem of course is we can all do this but to make money we have to trade without knowing the closing price which is a lot harder.

So Why Are These Systems So Popular?

Clever advertising – it’s a good story (would be even better if it were true) and most are sold by people who have never traded in their lives and make money selling you the system.

Now this is a good way to make money they get guaranteed income and you trade it and get a guaranteed loss.

Day trading success over the longer term is a contradiction in terms and is really a simple way to lose all your money and do it quickly.

If you are considering day trading think twice and do some investigation for yourself – learn about standard deviation of price volatility and you will see why forex day trading will wipe you out.

Of course you can always ask for that elusive real time track record of the VENDORS success - but trust me it is very elusive and you are likely to spend a long time looking for it!

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FOREX Day Trading - Day Trading Doesn't Work So Don't Try It

By Sacha Tarkovsky

The logic of day trading is totally flawed and will never make you money over the longer term and will wipe out your equity.

If you want to prove it ask anyone who says it does to give you a real time track record of profits and you won’t get one.

Why? Because day trading does not make money.

Before we begin, you may ask yourself why there are so many people claiming they make money at day trading?

Well the answer is it’s a good story and appeals to peoples greed.

This creates system sales and revenue for the vendor OF these day trading methods so they make money you lose.

Here are the reasons day trading does not work:

1. Time Period

A day is to short a time period to judge market trends accurately.

Think about it.

Trillions of dollars are traded everyday and prices can go anywhere and there is no way of guessing what the volatility in a day will be or the direction.

Short term moves are simply random.

You could probably flip a coin and do as well as most day traders.

2. Stops

Day traders use the daily range to buy and sell and set stops.

Stops therefore tend to be close to entry by the very nature of day trading.

Volatility in a single session is impossible to judge and most times simply picks off the stops and creates small losses which add up.

3. Banking profits early

Most day traders are looking to scalp a few pips here and there.

They do have some wining trades (more by luck than by judgment) but of course they break the fundamental rule of trading leveraged investments which is:

Run your profits to cover your inevitable losses.

As they have a lot of losses and marginal profits the net result is the erosion and eventual wipe out of account equity.

Day Trading is a good story, but in reality day trading doesn’t work over the long term.

Simply ask any vendor who sells a day trading system for this:

A real time track record of their profits over 3 years and see the answer you get.

The conclusion from all of this?

You guessed it – Avoid day trading if you don’t want to lose your money.

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Forex Day Trading - Why You Will Never Make Money Day Trading

By Kelly Price

Long term you won't make money if you try forex day trading, as you can never get the odds in your favor however more traders try day trading than perhaps any other method. Let's look at why it can never work - yet still remains so popular.

Day trading doesn't work simply because all short term volatility is random and prices can and do go anywhere in a day session. If you try and use support and resistance you are going to lose - because volatility is random and these levels are of no use whatsoever - this should be obvious to anyone - but forex day traders don't see it.

You have millions of traders trading trillions of dollars and to say you can measure what this huge mass of people are going to do in a short period of time is absolute nonsense.

So why is day trading so popular?

Quite simply it's a good story and appeals to greedy and naive investors who are duped by marketing companies selling day trading systems, with track records that show amazing profits but they all have a problem - none of them have track records that are real, they are all simulated knowing the closing prices!

How hard is that?

Anyone would be a millionaire if they knew tomorrows price today - but forex trading is a bit more difficult.

When you see a track record of amazing gains look at the small print and you will normally see a disclaimer like this standard CFTC one

"cftc rule 4.41 - hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".

Put the above disclaimer on a track record and a vendor can say anything they want and of course they do. These track records never lose in hindsight but of course in the brutal world of real trading they get destroyed.

Day traders think that within a day they reduce risk - but of course there is no point in have a small risk to your stop if you have a high probability of it being hit!

Day traders get lots of small losses that simply eat into and destroy their equity.

If their lucky enough to get a profit, they take it quickly which of course breaks the fundamental rule of trading - run your profits, to cover your inevitable losses.

Day traders lose and wonder why but the reason is obvious - they simply can't get the odds in their favor - PERIOD

The Way To Win

If you want to win at forex trading you must get the odds in your favor and this means using reliable data. If you like the excitement of it try forex swing trading, if you are more patient try long term trend following.

Both the above will allow you to trade the odds and enjoy currency trading success so try these methods and do not try forex day trading.

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Forex Day Trading - The Biggest Myth of Day Trading Is You Can Make Money At It!

By Sacha Tarkovsky

Day trading systems are everywhere, but it is impossible to make money from them - for 2 main reasons which are outlined below.

If you think you can make money day trading, you need to think again and read the facts below.

If you are thinking of buying a day trading system ask any vendor to show you a real track record of profits and you won’t get one.

The reason?

Day trading by its very nature is flawed and does not produce consistent profits over the longer term.

1. How Currencies trend

On a short term daily basis trying to guess the action in a day is similar to flipping a coin. – All short term daily movements are random.

Currency markets reflect the health of the economy overall and trend longer term.

If you look at long term trend following you have reliable data to work with over a period of time but this is not so in day trading.

If you are a technical trader (and most day trading systems are) if you don’t have enough reliable data you cannot attempt to put the odds in your favour.

2. Day trading breaks the fundamental rule of trading:

You have heard it many times: “cut your losses and run your profits” You need to have far bigger profits than losses to make profits longer term.

Sure you can cut your losses but you can’t run your profits.

Generally most readers have more losing trades than winners and if you cut a winning trade in a day session how can you ever make money? – You can’t.

You will simply lose your equity quickly day trading.

So why do traders do it?

Because they believe vendors who make claims and produce hypothetical track records.

Check with these vendors and ask for a track record you won’t get one.

They make money selling you the system and then making more money on kickbacks from brokers (remember transaction costs are higher) on day trading systems.

So broker and vendor win you lose your money that’s the real story of most day traders.

If you want to make money trade longer term and also never buy a system from a vendor unless you get a real-time track record, over at least 3 years – however you will wait a long time for one of those on a day trading system

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FOREX Day Trading - The Myth & Reality of FOREX Day Trading

By Sacha Tarkovsky

FOREX day trading is more popular than ever and online you can get a huge amount of e-books and FOREX day trading systems, which promise you regular income and huge capital gains. Here we will look at how to separate out the myth and see the reality in relation to day trading and how to win in the markets.

Myth – Day Traders Have Profitable Real Time Track Records

Reality
FOREX day traders don’t make money and the proof is that of all the e-books and systems for sale, you never see a real track record of real profits made in the market over the longer term. What you do get is a hypothetical track record, but these are not worth the paper their written on.

Why?
Quite simply because their devised in hindsight - knowing the closing prices. Well, if we all knew tomorrow’s prices today we would all be millionaires! Hypothetical track records are simply made up and have no bearing on how successful you will be trading the system.

Myth – Day traders trade their own systems

Reality
Most FOREX day trading systems are sold by failed brokers, or marketing people who have the sense not to trade the system themselves. They don’t need to, as they make money anyway. They can simply rely on writing some marketing copy to appeal to the greed of investors, then sell them the system. They get their fee and the FOREX trader gets the loses – fair deal for them!

Myth – You can predict short term volatility

Reality
This is of course why day trading does not work. Trillions of dollars are traded each day by millions of participants and to say you can predict where prices will go in a matter of hours is laughable. The only people who take notice of support and resistance are losing day traders. Volatility can and does, take prices anywhere in a day and levels of resistance and support are constantly broken handing day traders loses.

Myth – Day trading restricts losses and runs profits

Reality
As day traders work with meaningless data they can’t win of course but many think that day trading restricts risk, but it actually creates it. Losses are small, as they are near daily support or resistance ( which get broken frequently as the data is meaningless) which simply ensures they get stopped out with a loss albeit a small one. Running profits?

Forget this with day trading!
They are looking to scalp a few ticks or close positions out quickly. The result is they can never run profits to cover the huge amount of small losses they get. The biggest myth of currency trading is that day traders make money they don’t. They lose and system sellers laugh all the way to the bank.

The proof of the above is:
If you ever ask a day trader for a long term track record of real profits – Try it and see if you get one.

If you want FOREX education avoid day trading and learn FOREX Trading methods that actually give you a chance of winning. Day trading is simply one of the best ways to lose your money in online FOREX trading, so don’t fall for the myth understand the reality.

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